The San Francisco 49ers’ perfect record was tarnished last weekend against the Cleveland Browns when rookie kicker Jake Moody missed a 41-yard field goal attempt with six seconds left in a 19-17 loss. San Francisco now sits at 5-1 on the season and is back on the road in Week 7 for a Monday Night Football matchup with the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are coming off a road win after beating the Chicago Bears, 19-13.
The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET and is on ABC, ESPN or fuboTV.
Monday Night Football Odds
San Francisco 49ers -7 -300 Over 43 -110
Minnesota Vikings +7 +240 Under 43 -110
This should be a relatively easy win for the Niners, who are seven-point favorites, but San Fran is dealing with a number of key injuries that could make this a closer game than expected. The total opened at 47 but with money coming in on the under, it’s moved down by 4 at BetMGM.
Moody missing the game-winning field goal wasn’t the only reason the Niners lost to the Browns in Week 6. Cleveland’s defense is one of the — if not the — best in the NFL this season and has been the main reason for a number of its victories thus far. But multiple injuries to some of San Fran’s top players also played a major role in the loss. Running back Christian McCaffrey left the game with an oblique injury and wide receiver Deebo Samuel left with a shoulder injury.
Thankfully for the Niners, neither injury is serious and it’s sounding like, at the very least, McCaffrey will be able to go on Monday. However, even if both players were to be sidelined, I would still lean toward San Fran to cover because it’s arguably one of the deepest teams with one of the best defenses in the NFL.
After suffering a regular-season loss for the first time in his career as a starting quarterback, I expect quarterback Brock Purdy to bounce back against Minnesota’s defense. The Vikings are allowing opposing signal callers to complete 75% of passes with the third-highest passer rating.
Minnesota Vikings Must be Perfect to Win
That leads me to believe that San Fran will be able to find plenty of offensive success. After all, last week’s loss was also just the second time in Purdy’s career that the 49ers have failed to score 30 or more points in a regular-season game.
After going 11-0 in one-score games a year ago, the tables have turned for Minnesota this year. Every game the Vikings have played has finished within a touchdown, but they’re just 2-4 on the season with an 0-3 record at home.
They’ll continue to be without their best offensive weapon, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is on the IR for at least three more games. QB Kirk Cousins will have to be at his absolute best on Monday if the Vikings want to stay in this game, which would involve improving on third downs. Minnesota is converting just 34.3% of the time, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league.
Defensively, the Vikings rank 21st in scoring defense, giving up 22.5 points per game, and are 15th in defensive DOVA. They also lost outside linebacker Marcus Davenport to a high ankle sprain against the Bears, which is a huge blow to that group. One thing I expect to see a lot of from defensive coordinator Brian Flores is blitzing. According to ESPN, Flores has sent five or more rushers on 60.5% of the passing plays Minnesota has faced this season. It worked last weekend against Chicago, but I’m not sure it’ll have the same success against Purdy, who has found quite a bit of success this season when seeing that type of pressure.
Essentially, Minnesota are going to have to be nearly perfect on both sides of the ball if they want a chance to upset one of the best teams in the NFC.
49ers team total is Over 25.5.
Winning by a touchdown on the road is a big ask even for one of the best teams in the league. I would lean toward them covering, but my favorite play is going to be on the 49ers to go over their team total of 25.5.
This team is going to be fired up after suffering its first loss of the season last weekend and that will be especially prevalent on the offensive end. Even if CMC and Samuel aren’t able to play, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Elijah Mitchell can carry the workload just fine. San Francisco’s offense is, at the very least, on the same level as the Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs, who all put up at least 27 points on Minnesota this season. Plus, with Purdy’s track record of scoring 30 plus points as the Niners starter, I think we see a big number from them as they bounce back with a win.
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