There are few sporting venues the Gridiron Guide enjoys visiting more than Boston’s Fenway Park. It’s an historic shrine that oozes history and familiarity—even to a native Californian. The Green Monster, the Citgo sign, the quirky dimensions, the legends who played there, the classic games they played there—all of it makes for a sports fan’s Lourdes or Notre Dame.
Wait a minute. They’re playing a college football bowl game there? A minor bowl game at that? What in the name of Babe Ruth and Ted Williams is going on?
It’s the Wasabi Fenway Bowl, one of three bowls the Guide found on this week’s rummage through the 2023 Bowl Season. And, while the SMU Mustangs and Boston College Eagles won’t remind anyone of the Fenway legends of yore, they do present a nice wagering opportunity.
Stay Off This Trojan Horse
The line on the Holiday Bowl opened Louisville -6. Within minutes of USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams announcing the predictable-as-the-second-ring-on-a-phone news he was skipping this game, it shot up to 8 before settling at 7.5. And Williams—the expected first pick in the NFL Draft—is the bandleader of the Trojans’ NFL exodus. Also gone are leading running back MarShawn Lloyd (820 yards, 9 TDs), leading wide receiver Tahj Washington (52-963-6) and WR Brenden “Son of Jerry” Rice. And we haven’t mentioned the transfer-portal Trojans’ refugees: WR Mario Williams, linebacker Tackett Curtis, defensive end Korey Foreman and cornerback Domani Jackson. Those are four marquee names out of the 13 USC players hitting the portal.
While USC coach Lincoln Riley clears the dust, three-year backup QB Miller Moss walks through the mess for his first career USC start. This means the Trojans’ offensive hopes lie on the arm, legs and brain of a junior who has garbage time down to a science—throwing for three TDs in 59 career attempts. Meanwhile, the Louisville Cardinals bring pretty much a full complement to San Diego, including RBs Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 13 TDs, 6.2-ypc) and Isaac Guerendo (649-8-6.0). That pair gets to run amok against a USC defense that allows an eye-watering 35 points (T123rd) and 438 yards-per-game. Since going out 6-0, the Trojans are 1-5, losers of their last three—and a hideous 3-9 ATS this season. Safe to say one team is on a Holiday in this one. The other is USC.
Best Bet: Louisville -7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Watch: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
Last Chance to Catch This Bandwagon
When it comes to making a last stand, the Arizona Wildcats are the perfect choice for the Alamo Bowl. Picked to finish eighth in the Pac-12’s swan song season, the Wildcats were not only the surprise team in the Pac-12, they may be the hottest team in the country.
Let’s put Arizona’s 9-3 record into proper perspective by looking at its losses. One was an overtime loss to Mississippi State in a game it dominated. What cost them was QB Jayden de Laura’s four interceptions. A one-TD loss to a Washington Huskies team that is 13-0 and in the College Football Playoffs. The last was a triple-OT loss by two points to USC. Since that USC loss, the Wildcats ran the table, averaging nearly 39 points a game over those six games.
When de Laura went down with an injury, freshman Noah Fifita stepped in and stepped up, throwing for 2,515 yards and 23 TDs to only five INTs. This explains why the Wildcats are one of the most pass-happy teams in the country, going airborne nearly 55% of the time. As for the Oklahoma Sooners, standout QB Dillon Gabriel hit the portal, popping out at Oregon. That leaves the offensive controls to five-star recruit Jackson Arnold, who will have a different offensive coordinator calling plays, since OC Jeff Lebby took the Mississippi State job.
Oklahoma is third in the nation in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, so the Sooners can put up points. But they haven’t exactly made an Alamo-esque stand without Gabriel the last two years. The Over at 62.5 is tempting, but remember this Alamo by taking the team with the most proven QB.
Best Bet: Arizona -3 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Thursday, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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Mustangs Figure to Go Yard at Fenway
If you were in a confidence bowl pool, giving point totals ranging from 41 to 1 on each bowl game based on your confidence in a given team winning, picking the SMU Mustangs in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl should be somewhere in your top five. Because “Wasabi” certainly describes an SMU team that is scorching defenses and searing offenses.
The Mustangs’ 11-2 record—with the exclamation point being a 26-14 AAC Championship Game victory over Tulane—is their best record since the unbeaten Eric Dickerson/Craig James Pony Express team of 1982. That victory came with backup QB Kevin Jennings, who skillfully managed the game relieving the injured Preston Stone. Jennings threw for 203 yards and a TD. He also ran for another 63 yards and turning Jaylan Knighten loose for 75 yards and a TD.
But the story is the Mustangs’ defense, which ranks seventh in yards-per play (4.5), 11th in yards allowed per game (300) and 12th in points allowed (17.4). You don’t have to look far to find SMU on that all-important third-down efficiency. The Mustangs are third among FBS teams, allowing teams to convert only 27.1% of their third downs. Taking all of that into play, figure out how a 6-6 Boston College Eagles team that is missing four starters on defense and three on offense will break a three-game losing streak. Yes, this game is a home game for the Eagles, but we’re confident that Doug Flutie, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, David Ortiz or any other Fenway Park or BC legend aren’t scaling the Green Monster to save the Eagles here.
Best Bet: SMU -11 (-110 at Bet Rivers)
Watch: Thursday, 11 a.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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