The college basketball season kicked off this week and teams have already played one or two games.
The landscape will undoubtedly change significantly and dramatically, but let’s take our shot at picking the top 10 teams going into the season — a Sweet 16, if you will.
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1. Kansas
+1100 to win National Championship, +180 to make Final Four, +195 to win Big 12
The Kansas Jayhawks are the favorite to win the National Championship despite losing both Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson to the NBA, while also losing former top recruits in the transfer portal. They still have one of the best distributing point guards in the country in Dajuan Harris, senior big man Hunter Dickinson transferring in from Michigan, and a history of success, earning No. 1 seeds in five of the last seven NCAA tournaments.
2. Duke
+1100 to win National Championship, +200 to make Final Four, +127 to win ACC
As the odds indicate, the Duke Blue Devils are arguably a co-favorite with Kansas. They had a down season relative to expectations in 2022-23, but Jeremy Roach is back to lead the offense. While he goes about things differently than Harris, he is an experienced scorer that will be indispensable in key regular season matchups, as well both the conference and postseason tournaments. Jon Scheyer will also be in his second year as coach and should be more comfortable in the role.
3. Marquette
+1700, to win National Championship, +330 to make Final Four, +230 to win Big East
The Big East will be a fun conference to follow, as the Marquette Golden Eagles won the conference tournament before falling in the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. Both of those results outperformed preseason expectations, but now they’re projected to battle with defending NCAA champion Connecticut in the Big East. This is yet another team with strong point guard play (sensing a theme?) from Tyler Kolek and the Golden Eagles still have a ton of experience up and down the roster.
4. Purdue
+1300 to win National Championship, +215 to make Final Four, +145 to win Big Ten
The Purdue Boilermakers had an incredible regular-season run last year before a historic upset in the NCAA tournament that saw them bounced by 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round. However, that shouldn’t cloud their potential, especially with Zach Edey back in the mix after winning National Player of the Year and Big Ten Player of the Year in 2022-23.
5. Michigan State
+1400 to win National Championship, +280 to make Final Four, +250 to win Big Ten
The Michigan State Spartans have a history of success, but haven’t reached that same level in the last few seasons. That looks likely to change thanks to a trio of returning guards in Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins, who combined to put up 37.5 points per game last season and will once again drive the offense. They will present Purdue with its biggest intra-conference challenge.
6. Houston
+1700 to win National Championship, +320 to make Final Four, +390 win Big 12
The Big 12 will be an another incredibly competitive conference, but the Houston Cougars have reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last four full seasons. Coach Kelvin Sampson will face a tough test with three key starters having departed from last year’s roster, but they still have experienced players such as big-man J’Wan Roberts, who will be complemented by key incoming transfers LJ Cyer and Damian Dunn. Finally, Terrance Arceneaux comes into the season with expectations of taking a leap as a true sophomore.
7. Florida Atlantic
+3500 to win National Championship, +550 make Final Four, +105 to win AAC
In a strict sense, the Florida Atlantic Owls are the first mid-major on this list, but they should be taken seriously after making it all the way to the Final Four in only their second-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament last season. They were only a nine seed, but they finished last year 35-4 in the regular season. That’s not necessarily a great predictor for many teams, but the Owls return their entire roster with the exception of only Michael Forrest, who had to depart due to eligibility.
8. Connecticut
+1500 to win National Championship, +290 to make Final Four, +275 to win Big East
This may feel like a disrespectful ranking of the defending national champs, but there are cases both for and against the chances of a repeat by the Connecticut Huskies. They lost a significant amount of experience with the departures of three key players from last year’s roster, which means there are plenty of relative unknowns that will need to step up. The good news is, those unknowns are supremely talented. Donovan Clingan was a per-minute beast as a freshman and should be the starting big man for the Huskies. Coach Dan Hurley is also bringing in a consensus top-ten recruiting class and has proven he knows how to get the most out of his players. Ultimately, I project that the lack of experience will keep UConn from another title, but there will be plenty of highs in their season.
9. Tennessee
+1700 to win National Championship, +340 to make Final Four, +255 to win SEC
The Tennessee Volunteers look to be the class of the SEC thanks to a well-rounded starting lineup. What they lack in star power, they make up for with stable production as three of their five projected starters scored in double-digits last season. A fourth member of that starting rotation should be Dalton Knecht, who averaged 20.2 points per game at Northern Colorado last season.
10. San Diego State
+8000 to win National Championship, +1100 to make Final Four, +133 to win Mountain West
Now is probably the time to get good odds on some of the less mainstream or non-traditional powers around the country who have legitimate cases to make a run in the tournament. We know the San Diego State Aztecs can do so given their appearance in the championship game last year. They lost a significant amount of firepower from that roster, but they still have a well-rounded rotation led by the veteran backcourt of Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler. The experience of last season’s run should also help.
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