The 151st Open Championship welcomes the best golfers in the world this week and pedigree matters in more ways than one.
What is it about Liverpool that brings out four-packs of A-listers? Yes, there’s John, Paul, George and Ringo. But there’s also Walter Hagen, Bob Jones, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy.
Odds to win Open Championship
- Scottie Scheffler +650
- Rory McIlroy +700
- Jon Rahm +1200
- Brooks Koepka +1800
- Cameron Smith +2000
- Patrick Cantlay +2200
- Rickie Fowler +2500
- Viktor Hovland +2500
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Tommy Fleetwood +2800
- Tyrrell Hatton +2800
- Collin Morikawa +3000
- Jordan Spieth +3000
Odds courtesy of Golden Nugget Online Sportsbook
Say “hello” to the last four Open Championship winners at Royal Liverpool, the site of this week’s final major of the season.
You could do a lot worse than having the history of golf on your winner’s roll. Especially when one of the names on that Royal Liverpool Mt. Rushmore comes in off a sterling victory in the Scottish Open.
That would be McIlroy, who parlayed a birdie-birdie finish into a thievery of the title from Scotsman Robert MacIntyre, who must have felt like throwing up after posting a final-round 64.
Based on that form and his function in dismantling Royal Liverpool nine years ago, McIlroy’s the betting favorite to conquer Hoylake (the interchangeable name for Royal Liverpool, courtesy of the suburb it’s located in). He’s +700 to win his first major championship since 2014, when he followed his Hoylake victory with a PGA Championship at Valhalla.
You could do a lot worse than staking your bankroll to a four-time major winner who finished second here last year and second in last month’s U.S. Open. And it would surprise nobody to see McIlroy hoisting the Claret Jug Sunday.
But given the amount of money pouring in on McIlroy, we’re pouring our interest elsewhere. Especially with a player who won’t embarrass himself keeping the same company with McIlroy, Woods, Hagen and Jones.
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Players We Favor
Scottie Scheffler (+650)
It is inconceivable to play this consistently tee-to-green and not have a major championship this year. Yet, here we are with Scheffler. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Total. He’s gaining 3.1 strokes on the field tee-to-green.
By way of comparison, Woods came into the 2006 Open at Liverpool gaining 2.6. Scheffler’s T3 at the Scottish Open gave him seven consecutive top-five finishes. Run that through the mental Samsonite. Yes, we hear you talking about Scheffler’s well-chronicled putting woes (137th in SG: Putting), which explains his major schnide. But we’re chronicling two other factors: he’s seventh in three-putt avoidance and Royal Liverpool’s greens won’t be as fast as those on the other side of the Atlantic. No value? No worries. Get him. Now.
Hovland Drowning in Value
Viktor Hovland (+2500)
Yes, we’re back on this bandwagon again with another member of the Best Player You Think Should Win A Major Club. You’ve bet on the Norwegian star before and watched him contend, only to throw one clinker round into the hopper every time.
Why are we diving into the fjord again? Well, Hovland went T7 (Masters), T2 (PGA Championship) and 19th (US Open) in the previous majors. He’s finished no worse than 29th in his last six starts, which includes a playoff win at the Memorial against a field including Scheffler, McIlroy and Jon Rahm. His Open record is limited—to two top-12 finishes: 12th in 2001 and fourth last year. One of the best iron players on the planet, Hovland is eighth in Proximity, T9 in par-4 scoring average (a key Hoylake stat) and 11th in birdie-or-better percentage. C’mon in. Even this fjord’s water is warm.
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Brooks Koepka (+1800)
He’s 18-under-par in the previous three majors this year. Do we have your attention? Even as Koepka finished T17 in the U.S. Open and never contended, he gained strokes on the field every round. Then, there’s the course and possible weather issues. In the past, Hoylake wasn’t a course that rewarded length off the tee; Woods famously won the 2006 Open without pulling his driver. But with 70 more yards and only three par-5s (two north of 600 yards), which is one fewer than 2014, the driver will come out. And when it does, you probably want someone averaging nearly five birdies a round on the LIV Tour pulling it out. You want someone who finished in the top 10 in four of his last six Open Championships. And you want a five-time major champion at 22-1. Does that have your attention?
Sleeper We Like
Brian Harman (+11000)
Say “Hello” to the best putter inside 6 feet on Tour. And while you’re at it, say hello to the No. 2 player on Tour in bogey avoidance and the No. 13 player in Total Putting. Think good iron play and a great putter travels well here? The lefty enjoyed one of the quietest springs/summers on Tour: finishing 12th at the Scottish Open, ninth in the Rocket Mortgage and runner-up at the Travelers after making the cut at the U.S. Open.
That 12th at the Scottish Open came courtesy of a final-round 74 that was the worst final round of the top 18 finishers. Harman finished T6 in his last Open Championship, so we know links golf is no hill for this climber. We also know value—especially for a top-10 or top-20 finish—also travels well.
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