Last weekend, we saw a race in Austin, Texas that left many with a bad taste in their mouth. There was the double disqualification of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton after the race due to technical infringements. Both the Ferrari and Mercedes teams insisted it was largely due to the lack of time to prepare. That was an unfortunate result of the sprint format that requires teams to finalize cars set up after only one practice session. This result did allow for a surprise however, when American Logan Sargeant took home a point for coming in 10th. He was the first American driver to score a point in F1 since 1993.
The next race in the Americas during this string of five races in six weeks will take place in Mexico City. The track is a shorter circuit. It takes the drivers an average of around 1:17 to complete a lap. Look for more aggressive driving and a significant possibility of a safety car.
Driver Expectations in Mexico City
Taking a look at this race weekend, you can see an interesting pattern that has developed over the last two races. The podium has been the same. And I’m not just talking about the same three drivers, they also finished in the same positions in both 2021 and 2022. Max Verstappen, much like in Austin, has the opportunity to complete the three-peat this weekend.
Hamilton, coming off a strong showing that netted him second place before last weekend’s disqualification, could be a strong contender to finish second for a third year in a row, if not challenge Verstappen for the top of the podium. And hometown favorite Sergio Perez could return to form here, pushing for another podium after a disappointing run of form over the last few races. He was promoted to P4 after the two DQ’s last weekend.
Verstappen emerged yet again as the favorite to win this race. The odds are slimmer than they have been in recent weeks at -275 at BetMGM. The odds also have a repeat of the 2021 and 2022 podiums as the most likely result for this weekend, with Hamilton marked at +600 and Perez coming in at +1000 to win.
Outside of the winner, the Top 6 in this race should be hotly contested. Leclerc has finished in the top 6 the last two races here, as has his teammate Carlos Sainz. With a more difficult race for the top spots this season (welcoming McLaren into the fight), it’ll be an uphill battle for both Ferrari drivers to pull it off again.
Odds for Top 6
Max Verstappen: -1000
Lando Norris: -500
Lewis Hamilton: -500
Sergio Perez: -500
George Russell: -400
Charles Leclerc: -225
Carlos Sainz: -176
Oscar Piastri: -149
Odds courtesy of Caesars
These drivers should all put up a good fight, with Oscar Piastri a dark horse pick to pull it off after a disastrous weekend in Austin.
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Homecoming For Perez
Last weekend saw Sargeant (albeit with some helpful disqualifications ahead of him) score the first points in his F1 career. This weekend features another homecoming, this time for Perez. He is the only Mexican driver on the grid. Perez has historically performed very well at his home track. He finished in the Top 10 in all but one race he’s run here as an F1 driver.
With podium finishes his last two years, and driving in the most dominant car on the grid, look for him to continue that run of form barring anything catastrophic from happening. Keep an eye on how he performs during the practice and qualifying sessions. Don’t be surprised if he gives Verstappen a run for his money.
Loco Props for Mexican GP
If you’re riding high on Red Bull and like Perez to get another podium at his home grand prix, consider betting that both Red Bull drivers will find themselves on the podium. You’re getting nice odds at +110, and Mexico is a strong circuit for their cars’ set up.
If you’re looking for the winning margin to bet on, Caesars has the Over/Under listed at 12.5 seconds. Don’t think that you’re having deja vu, this was also the line for the last two races. Unlike in Austin where last year had been closer, the margin in Mexico last year was over 15 seconds. Seeing the results of the last two races, I like the Under here with Verstappen and Red Bull struggling for pace as of late. This is despite their winning form continuing nearly uninterrupted.
As I mentioned before, this track is primed for a safety car to be used due to the short length and the proximity of the drivers standings. BetRivers has the odds of a single safety car being used at -150. The odds for two to be used sits at +250. There have never been two safety cars used on this track due to the introduction of the Virtual Safety Car before the track began to be used by F1. The safer bet is for one to be used throughout the course of the race.
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