If you’re betting on the NBA, you need a depth of field to find values in the spread. Here’s your weekly playbook:
- Some of the hottest teams covering the spread are the Phoenix Suns and the Miami Heat. You’d expect that from teams at the top of the standings. These guys are clicking at about 80 percent.
- The Washington Wizards are in that 80 percentile too. How good is the team? Not good at all, coming out of mid-November at 3-8. But they’re returning bets, because they get a lot of points. (Being bad has its rewards!)
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- The worst teams versus the number, the Detroit Pistons and New Orleans Pelicans, hit only about once every three games. Their weak league records would indicate that. But the Utah Jazz is in that same group, despite starting the week with an 8-4 league record. This is the Washington Wizards example in reverse. The Jazz win, but often have too many points to cover.
- The Pistons, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs are covering the over totals in roughly 70 percent of their games. Utah, the Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks have been good bets for their games to hit the under.
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- It’s tempting to bet a team heading into a homestand. There’s a sweet spot on the schedule for the Philadelphia 76ers, who play well at home. They’re undefeated there outright, and take on the New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat in the next few days.
As the season progresses, teams will develop tendencies that play into your handicapping. Watch, compile data, and play bigger than normal when the factors you like line up. Good luck!
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