Last Saturday, the Guide was sitting at the mechanic’s waiting for an oil change. The Alabama Crimson Tide and South Florida Bulls were on the TV, turning college football back to the Pleistocene Era with one of the most hideous football displays this side of Stanford or New Mexico.
South Florida hanging with Alabama? It was the proverbial five-car pileup on the freeway. We couldn’t look away. But what we could do was salivate when we looked at this week’s games and saw who was next on the Crimson Tide’s schedule. We did the same when we looked at the LSU Tigers’ schedule.
As William Shakespeare undoubtedly uttered, sometimes, this stuff writes itself.
Last week: 1-2. Season 4-6.
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No Rolling Tide Here
There is nothing more satisfying for Alabama Crimson Tide haters than seeing Nick Saban stalking the sidelines looking like he just swallowed owl-dung. His scowl of disgust has been omnipresent this season, because the Crimson Tide’s quarterback hunt has ebbed and flowed through three different signal callers in the last two games.
The Alabama Quarterback Roulette Wheel stops this week with Jalen Milroe back under center. Milroe was manic in his five-touchdown performance against Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. He was depressive in his two-interception outing the following week against Texas Lonhorns. That got him benched and spared him Saban’s scowl in last week’s hideous 17-3 victory over South Florida.
That South Florida was able to play with the Tide as long as it did illustrates that this Alabama team has issues. Issues accented by not only QB Roulette, but five sacks in each of the last two games. And coming in to exploit this is an Ole Miss Rebels team that took apart Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 48-23, last week behind versatile QB Jaxson Dart’s 387 yards of total offense: 251 passing and 136 rushing.
The Rebels are running on all cylinders now, are 3-0 ATS and nearly pulled off the upset last year, falling 30-24 despite Dart driving the Rebels to the Alabama 14 in the final minute before running out of downs. The Tide haven’t lost two games at home in a season since 2007—Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa—so it’s a tough ask for the Tide to ebb again, especially with an athlete like Milroe at the controls. But we like Ole Miss to make Saban sweat—and perhaps scowl—again.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +7 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 12:30 ET, CBS or fuboTV
We Return You to the Pac-12, Now In Progress
To catch all of you up on the non-Colorado happenings in the final season of the Pac-12, while you were paying attention to Coach Prime and the Primettes, the UCLA Bruins were feasting on every directional school they could schedule. Last week’s entrée was North Carolina Central Eagles, which yielded 614 yards and 59 points to the Bruins in a 59-7 beat-down at the Rose Bowl. Now, the appetizer portion of the Bruins schedule is over. Quite over. It begins with a dive into a loaded Pac-12 at arguably the toughest place in the conference for road teams. The 11th-ranked Utah Utes are 23-1 SU and 15-9 ATS at Rice-Eccles Stadium since 2019.
Utah’s defense is 17th in FBS, allowing only 270.7 yards per game. The Utes allowed Weber State only 127 yards in their 31-7 victory—a victory coming with freshman QB Nate Johnson, who is holding the fort down for the injured Cameron Rising. Speaking of Rising, is this the week he returns from his torn ACL? If so, the atmosphere at Rice-Eccles will be incendiary. If not, the Utah defense should be incendiary against UCLA freshman QB Dante Moore, who brings his own multi-talented, highly touted skills to the proceedings. But the Bruins haven’t won in Salt Lake City since 2015 and as long as this line stays around 4.5 to 5, Moore is less here.
Best Bet: Utah -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. FOX or fuboTV
Over the Moon with Jayden Daniels
Let’s get the Arkansas Razorbacks’ optimism out of the way early here. The last three meetings between these two were decided by three points. That allows us to spend more time rhapsodizing about LSU Tigers QB Jayden Daniels, who set a school record for pass completion percentage (25 or more attempts) when he completed 30 of 34 passes for 361 yards and two TDs in the Tigers’ 41-14 bludgeoning of the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week. Daniels solidified his chemistry with receiver Malik Nabers, who caught 13 of those passes for 239 yards.
Behind Daniels, the Tigers are averaging 537 yards a game through three games this year. Arkansas, meanwhile, was last seen blowing a 31-21 third-quarter lead to the BYU Cougars, finding a way to get outscored, 17-0, for the duration of its 38-31 loss. This can be neatly explained by the Razorbacks’ 14 penalties for 125 yards—including six on their final possession. And we haven’t mentioned the four Cougars’ sacks of Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson.
Regardless of how you parse this one, LSU is only 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, including 2-1 this year. But the Tigers are 9-1 to the Over in their last 10—and 3-0 this year. Arkansas is 7-3 to the Over in its last 10, including 2-1 this year. Yes, you could take the Tigers, give the 17.5, get the popcorn and enjoy the Jayden Daniels Aerial Show. But the only thing taking our eyes off Daniels is that irresistible Over.
Best Bet: Over-55.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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