Yes, we’re halfway through the Major League Soccer season, which means trends are there to exploit in what can be a nice market for wagers. Unlike the English Premier League, Champions League, and various international tournaments, MLS doesn’t attract heavy action from bettors.
That means there are avenues of value available, especially when you dig a little deeper into the prop-bet menu.
This week, we give you three games that explore some of those trends, along with an alternate bet that follows another trend.
Call Them FC Road Warriors
Yes, you find FC Cincinnati atop the Eastern Conference standings with a league-best 40 points through 17 games. Yes, Cincinnati is tied with LAFC for the second-fewest goals allowed (16). And yes, the big news in the Queen City is the possible US Men’s National Team call-up of star attacking midfielder Luciano Acosta, who is reportedly filing for American citizenship—which would grease his path to the USMNT.
The former Boca Juniors youth star in Argentina has never been capped in his home country, turning his attention to MLS, where he led the league in assists (190 and was an MLS All-Star and MLS Best XI selection last season.
This year, Acosta leads FC Cincinnati with eight goals. But look past all this and you see FC Cincinnati is a stellar road team, with only one loss in eight away matches. FC Cincinnati’s 13 road points are second in MLS to Orlando City SC. Meanwhile, Wayne Rooney’s DC United hasn’t exactly been a home juggernaut, losing four of its last five home matches and compiling only 12 home points out of a possible 27. Even with DC United’s Christian Benteke’s eight goals matching Acosta’s, these two won’t score a lot of goals, so the under-3.5 goals is a solid choice. But we’re going with the hot team at a value number.
Prediction: FC Cincinnati over DC United (+175 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
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Just Stay Home Next Time
As bad as DC United is at home, they’re stellar compared to the Vancouver Whitecaps’ road adventures. Or should we say misadventures. Vancouver is winless in seven road games, with a minus-6 goal differential and three points out of a possible 21. The Whitecaps are one of three teams who do not have a road win. Vancouver is so bad on the road that FootyStats rated LAFC 395% better in terms of points-per-game and 117% better in terms of goals scored.
Flipping that to defense, LAFC is 128% better conceding goals (0.75 at home vs. Vancouver’s allowing 1.71 away). Now, we add the fact LAFC lost back-to-back games to the Houston Dynamo (4-0 and 2-1) before righting the ship somewhat against Sporting KC (2-1). The question for Steve Cherundolo’s defending MLS champions: can they rebound after a midweek game against the always-troublesome Seattle Sounders and take care of business at home? Or is the post-CONCACAF Champions League letdown from two weeks ago still lingering? If you think so, the go-to bet is Both Teams To Score (BTTS), which has happened in 50% of LAFC’s home games and 86% of Vancouver’s away tilts. But even though we’re value hunters here there are times when a team’s form—or lack thereof—takes you in a certain direction.
Prediction: LAFC over Vancouver (-190 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
Sounding Off in Seattle
Why did we point out the troublesome element to Seattle in the previous game? Because the Sounders are one of the most clinically sound teams in MLS. This starts with goalkeeper Stefan Frei, who became the third goalie in MLS history to record 100 clean sheets, when he blanked the Portland Timbers on June 3. Frei’s nine clean sheets in 17 games lead MLS. It proceeds to defender Yeimar’s MLS-leading 43 interceptions to captain Nicolás Lodeiro’s 32 key passes (ninth in MLS) to the 7,860 accurate passes and 4,349 accurate forward zone passes—both of which lead MLS. And we haven’t mentioned Jordan Morris and his team-leading nine goals.
Front-to-back, the Sounders are one of the most complete teams in the league, allowing an average of 0.5 goals a game at Lumen Field. Waiting for them is an Orlando City team that’s the league’s best road team. How good are the Lions on the road? They’ve won 50% of their away games, bringing the league’s best road goal-differential (+3) along for the ride. This is a game that will provide a litmus test to how good Orlando City really is for the long haul. Here’s another game where Both Teams To Score isn’t a bad pick at -145, and if you think Orlando City will pass this test, Caesars is giving you +245 for your confidence. But we’re following Seattle’s lead and clinically getting ourselves into a (hopefully) good form of trouble.
Prediction: Seattle over Orlando City (+108 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV
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