Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. We have the final 2023 edition of the Gridiron Guide’s favorite college football trend: the—all together now—SERVICE ACADEMY UNDER! That’s 5-6 Army, a 2.5-point favorite over 5-6 Navy.
The proverbial “throw out the records when these two play” comes into play when you throw out the spread and zero in on the 28.5 Total. Send the 2023 regular college football season into the history books with a bet that has hit nearly 91% of the time since 2012.
That slam-dunk out of the way, let’s get to the four teams that comprise the final year of the four-team College Football Playoff. A group of four that leaves out a 13-0 Florida State Seminoles team that had the temerity to lose its marquee quarterback—Jordan Travis—to a broken leg two weeks ago. Apparently, losing your starting quarterback disqualifies you from playing for a national championship. Who knew?
Snark aside, let’s look at the four teams which managed to keep their quarterbacks vertical, off crutches and on the field.
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No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
The Michigan Wolverines back up their No. 1 seeding with the lowest odds of the four teams. But why is there trepidation behind a team with the No. 1 defense in the country and a team that has dismissed every challenge thrown its way this year.
Because Alabama.
Michigan may be 2-point favorites in their Rose Bowl Game semifinal, but getting the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide is no bargain. Not when the Tide is 6-1 in CFP semifinals and not when the CFP semifinal has proven a bridge too far for Michigan the last two years. The Wolverines have never reached the CFP championship game.
But despite QB J.J. McCarthy not cracking 150 yards in in his last four games, Michigan has answered every challenge. It put away Ohio State by six, then covered as 20.5-point favorites against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game by pitching a shutout. The Wolverines can rack up points and they can manage the clock and unleash both a lethal running game with Blake Corum (1,028 yards, 24 TDs) and their defense (9.5 points per game).
BetMGM has Michigan as +160 favorites to hoist the trophy.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
While opponents have slammed the door on Michigan in the CFP semifinal the last two years, this is not terra incognita for the Tide, who make their eighth CFP appearance. This, courtesy of a gritty 27-24 victory over the previous No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs.
And Alabama is as dangerous an opponent as you find this time of year. The Tide is 3-1 SU as an underdog in the CFP and they have three future No. 1 NFL picks in DE Dallas Turner and CBs Terrion Arnold and the wonderfully named Kool-Aid McKinstry. Even with those three, Alabama’s defense is 17th in points allowed (18.3). It bends, allowing more points than all but Tulane among the top 20 defenses in the country. But it generally doesn’t break, holding Georgia to 24 and the incendiary LSU Tigers and their nation’s-best offense to 28 points.
BetMGM has Alabama +190 to win the CFP and +110 on the moneyline to beat Michigan.
No. 2 Washington Huskies (13-0)
Not surprisingly, the Washington Huskies are getting no love from the oddsmakers. Washington is 13-0 and owns some of the biggest pelts of any CFP competitor. The Huskies beat Oregon (twice), Oregon State, Utah and USC when all of the aforementioned were ranked in the AP Top 25.
But before knocking out Oregon in the Pac-12 title game as +300 moneyline underdogs, which doubled as the final game in the history of that August conference, Washington won its previous six games by an average of six points. The Huskies are 11th in the country in scoring offense (37.7 points a game) and are 7-0 in one-score games.
And yet, even with Heisman Trophy finalist QB Michael Penix Jr., the nation’s leading passer (4,218 yards, 33 TDs), and standout WR Rome Odunze (81 catches-1,428 yards-13 TDs), Washington finds itself the longest shot in the CFP tournament at +700.
The Huskies are 4-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl CFP semifinal against Texas and +700 at BetRivers to win the championship.
No. 3 Texas Longhorns (12-1)
The Texas Longhorns removed any doubt about their place in the tournament by ringing up 57 points on Texas Tech, then putting 49 up in a rude dismissal of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game on their way out of the conference. The SEC-bound Longhorns were always considered a dark-horse title favorite and are +310 to win the whole thing, but questions persisted about its defense and QB Quinn Ewers’ health.
Those questions were asked. Consider them answered. Ewers dismantled Oklahoma State with his best game of the year: 452 yards and four TDs, illustrating that whatever lingering effects there were from his midseason shoulder injury are not lingering. Ewers and his plethora of weapons, starting with WRs Xavier Worthy (73-969-5) and Adonai Mitchell (51-813-10), explain why Texas is 16th in scoring offense (36.2).
As for the Longhorns’ defense, that seems to be the X-factor for the oddsmakers, who predict that Texas can stop Washington RB Dillon Johnson, who has been the Huskies’ X-factor, especially over the second half of the season. The Longhorns allow only 80.8 yards per game on the ground, ranking them third among FBS teams. The oddsmakers also figure the Texas pass rush will get to Penix enough to derail the Huskies in a battle of Texas coach Steve Sarkisian’s current team and his former one.
The Longhorns are four-point favorites to defeat Washington and +300 at BetRivers to win the championship.
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