We bid farewell to college football on Monday night so 5 Bets is going to focus on the big game. I looked at the spread, moneyline, total and prop bets and came up with five wagers I think should pay off.
5 Bets to Make this Week
Michigan -4.5 over Washington
Michael Penix Jr. Under 288.5 passing yards
Ja’Lynn Polk Over 49.5 receiving yards
Michigan-Washington Over 56.5 points
J.J. McCarthy Over 193.5 passing yards
My thoughts before the season were that the Michigan Wolverines were the best futures bet to win the national championship. Now that they are in the title game, I believe they’ll defeat the Washington Huskies by a touchdown.
I ended last year’s 5 Bets with an overall record of 25-22-2. Let’s see if I can better that in 2024.
The College Football National Championship game is Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN or fuboTV.
Michigan Takes National Championship
Despite all the off the field turmoil, whether it was Head Coach Jim Harbaugh’s suspension or the sign stealing controversies, this team never lost its focus. They beat everyone they faced and never really had a sweat.
Now a new distraction has popped up. Will Harbaugh stay in Ann Arbor or does he flee to the NFL? I think the players know he’s not coming back and want to win this game for him. They have rallied around him all year.
As good as the Washington offense is, defense wins championships. That will be evident on Monday. Michigan is 8-5 against the spread, including covering four of their last five.
Prediction: Michigan -4.5 over Washington (-109 at BetRivers)
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Penix struggles against Wolverines
You will find no bigger fan of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. than me. I said two years ago I thought he was one of the best signal callers in college football. I also said he should have won this year’s Heisman Trophy.
An even bolder prediction is that if he stays healthy, will be the best QB in this year’s NFL Draft.
With all that said, I do think he will find it tough to get any momentum going against the Wolverine pass defense. Michigan has the third-best pass defense in the country by opponent efficiency rating (101.52). They only allowed seven touchdown passes, fewest in the nation.
The Huskies have arguably the best offensive line in college football so Penix shouldn’t see much pressure. The key will be if he can get the ball to receivers that will experience probably the best coverage they’ve seen all year.
Prediction: Michael Penix Jr. Under 288.5 passing yards (-115 Caesars)
Ja’Lynn Polk Gobbles up Yards
Though I think Penix will struggle against Michigan, he won’t be completely shut down. He has three quality receivers to choose from when throwing the ball.
Rome Odunze is the best of the trio and he should be the focus of Michigan’s defensive game plan. That should leave Ja’Lynn Polk alone and available to grab more catches.
Prediction: Ja’Lynn Polk Over 49.5 receiving yards (-119 at Caesars)
Points, Points, and More Points
Both of these teams like to score. Washington was 10th in the regular season in scoring. They averaged 37.6 points a game.
Michigan isn’t far behind. They were No. 14, with an average of 36 points per game.
Yes, Michigan has a stellar defense. It hasn’t really been tested though. The only top 20 offenses it faced were Penn State and Alabama. If the Huskies are able to score on its first or second possession, this could turn into a track meet.
The total has gone Over in eight of Michigan’s last 10 games. Washington has hit the Over in four of its last seven games. In the previous nine national championships, the Over hit seven times.
Prediction: Michigan-Washington Over 56.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
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J.J. McCarthy Makes a Statement
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has been overlooked this whole season. He was an early frontrunner for the Heisman but apparently wasn’t flashy enough for the honor.
His own teammate, running back Blake Corum, started to take away some of the limelight from him. Even though he is one game away from winning the national championship, all anyone can talk about is his counterpart, Penix.
This is the game, McCarthy accomplishes two things. First, he outduels Penix and leads his team to victory. Second, he ups his draft stock considerably.
McCarthy’s not going to get more passing yards than Penix, but he’s going to clear the total set for him of 193.5. Take the Over, it’ll be an easier sweat than Penix’s passing prop.
Prediction: J.J. McCarthy Over 193.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
