It’s an all football version of 5 Bets this week. Ok, two of those football games are of the international variety. The English Premier League is in its eighth week and the feature match has the No. 1 and No. 3 teams squaring off on Saturday.
5 Bets to Make this Week
Aston Villa +240 over Arsenal
Manchester City-Luton total corner kicks Under 7.5 +280
Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards
Las Vegas Raiders +3 against Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 over Buffalo Bills
The three NFL games I chose are two contests against the spread, one of which features a line that I believe is under inflated. The other wager is on a prop bet featuring a quarterback that is more mobile than people believe.
Last week: 4-1, overall 19-14-1
Browning Runs Over Colts
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is averaging nearly double in rushing yards than the line Caesars has for Sunday’s meeting with the Indianapolis Colts.
Set at 12.5, Browning has an average of 23.7 rushing yards in the three games he has played.
The Colts have been dreadful in trying to contain QBs. They have allowed more than 13 QB rushing yards in eight of their 13 games. That’s fourth most in the league.
I like that trend and will grab that bet before the line goes down.
Prediction: Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Watch: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV
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Kansas City Gets by Buffalo
It’s been a head-scratching season for both the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The difference is the Chiefs have found a way to overcome their struggles. The Bills have not.
It is puzzling that the Chiefs are only favored by 1.5 points. Are we thinking Buffalo has fixed their issues? They haven’t.
I’ll take the home team versus the team that is 1-4 on the road.
Prediction: Chiefs 1.5 over Bills (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV
Raiders Defend their House
The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t had a particularly good season. One thing, though, they’ve been decent at home against the spread. They are 4-2 ATS when playing at Allegiant Stadium.
The books have this Sunday’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings as +3 for the Raiders.
I don’t think the Vikings have any one that can cover DeVante Adams and he’ll pile up the yards. This should be a Raiders victory. Getting +3 is just a bonus.
Prediction: Raiders +3 against Vikings (-110 at Bet365)
Watch: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
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Aston Villa Gets Another Upset
A week after knocking off Manchester City, 1-0, Aston Villa hosts Premier League leader Arsenal. Aston Villa has moved into third place in the U.K.’s top soccer league.
There are two reasons to back Aston Villa. The first is the odds. They’re getting a very attractive +240 at BetMGM to win Saturday’s match against Arsenal. That value is hard to pass up.
The second is their record at home. They are undefeated at home, winning seven consecutive matches there.
One concerning item is Arsenal’s road record. They are 5-1-1 and that might give pause to make this bet. I’ll still take it, however, as the payoff is just too good.
Prediction: Aston Villa +240 to beat Arsenal (+240 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Going Low in the Corner
Manchester City is in unfamiliar territory. The defending Premier League Champions are on a four-game winless streak. That hasn’t happened since Manager Pep Guardiola’s first season in 2019-2020.
They will face Luton Town, a team that is dealing with a heart-breaking loss to Arsenal last Tuesday. Luton saw their upset chance vanish in the last minute of the game. This after they outplayed Arsenal for most of the game.
That defeat, plus they have played two matches in seven days, could make this a physically and emotionally draining match for Luton. I don’t think they’ll provide much offense.
A great prop bet is the number of corner kicks in Sunday’s game. The Under of 7.5 is at +280 tempting since I think Man City will be providing 90% of them.
Prediction: Under 7.5 corner kicks Man City-Luton (-115 at BetMGM)
Watch: Sunday 9.m. ET, Peacock Premium
