Yes, we have no SEC. We have no SEC teams today.
It’s almost bananas that Monday’s College Football Championship between the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies is devoid of the SEC. But say what you will about what got us here. You’ve got the best defense and one of the best offenses in the country tangling.
You could make an argument for either, which we will do here, along with some tasty prop bets. The game is Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston. It will be shown on ESPN or fuboTV.
Why Michigan Will Win
Simple. Because defense wins championships. And the Wolverines have a ridiculous defense that has shut down everyone from the Penn State Nittany Lions to the Ohio State Buckeyes to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The numbers illustrate one of the best college football defenses this century. Michigan allows a nation-best 9.5 points per game. More importantly, it allows a No. 2 152.6 passing yards per game. The Wolverines force teams to 48.4 passing attempts per TD. That’s 339 attempts for only seven touchdowns.
Oh, and the Wolverines are sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (87.1). They have the most dominant front-seven in the nation.
They may get to turn that front-seven loose against a Washington team that could miss running back Dillon Johnson. He is the counterbalance to quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s aerial circus. Johnson suffered a foot injury late in the Huskies’ 37-31 Sugar Bowl victory over the Texas Longhorns and if he’s not available for Head Coach Kalen DeBoer, the Huskies may be in the doghouse.
Corum Leads Wolverines
Conversely, Michigan RB Blake Corum, who scored his 25th and 26th TDs against Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game, gets to run against a Washington defense surrendering nearly 138 yards a game. The Huskies are 99th in Expected Points Allowed-Rushing, which plays into Michigan’s game plan of slowing the game down and keeping Penix Jr. and company off the field.
That, in turn, again plays to the Wolverines’ strengths. Let J.J. McCarthy manage the game and throw TDs. He had three against Alabama. He will conduct the Michigan offense like a maestro. Michigan ranks ninth in Offensive Success Rate and gets to see a Washington team that allows more than twice as many points per game.
And there’s Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh, who overcame various shenanigans (recruiting, spying), to build a culture and program that fears nobody. The Wolverines are 8-2 ATS in their last 10, a testament to a purposeful team that expects to be here. They are currently 4.5-point favorites.
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Why Washington Will Win
Only two teams outside the SEC, Big Ten and ACC cartel have made the national championship game (Oregon in 2014 and TCU last year). It didn’t go well for either.
So why are the Huskies different?
Well, that starts with Penix, who led the nation in passing (4,218 yards, 33 TD-9 INT). Put aside the gaudy numbers and there’s his underrated leadership skills. He answered every challenge—from a trench-warfare slog against the Arizona State Sun Devils to two victories as underdogs to the Oregon Ducks, to last week’s 37-31 Sugar Bowl nail-biter over the Texas Longhorns. There, the Huskies were 4-point underdogs.
Put all that aside and there’s Penix’s touch. That went on full display against the Longhorns. En route to 430 yards and two touchdowns, there wasn’t a pass he couldn’t complete. He made over-the-shoulder dimes, rainbows down the sidelines, bullets over the middle, and quick screens. All of it. You could see his NFL draft stock improve with every throw.
Then, there’s the Washington offensive line, which is the best in the country. They have the Joe Moore Award, emblematic of the top OL, to prove it. The Huskies’ OL allowed only 11 sacks all season—and zero against a Texas team sprayed with multiple future NFL players.
Barring something unforeseen, don’t expect Michigan’s front-seven—as good as it is—to duplicate its six-sack tormenting of Alabama Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe.
Skill Players Key for Washington
The Wolverines pass defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation, allowing only 152.6 yards-per-game. But Washington provides a pick-your-poison plethora of receivers to cover, starting with prime target Rome Odunze (87 catches, 1,553 yards, 13 TDs). Expect Michigan to put lockdown corner Will Johnson on Odunze, a Biletnikoff Award finalist. That opens matters up for the Sundance to Odunze’s Butch Cassidy—Ja’Lynn Polk (65-1,122-9). And while there’s no cute nickname for No. 3 Jalen McMillian, there are 39 catches and four TDs. We haven’t mentioned tight end Jack Westover (41-394-4).
If the Wolverines can throw a blanket on all of them, well, hand them the trophy now. Nobody else has done it this season. Or last.
The Huskies own the nation’s longest winning streak at 21. They’ve answered every challenge from teams packing superior defenses (Hello, Texas). When the top two teams have met for the national championship, the No. 2 seed is 4-0 straight up. It’s never a bad idea to jump on the team with the best quarterback. Nor is it a bad idea to jump on a battle-tested team owning 10 victories over ranked teams—that’s a 4.5-point underdog.
Props We Like
Polk Over-50.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM).
Again, how many lockdown corners does Michigan have? We’re about to find out. Presuming Michigan puts Johnson on Odunze, that leaves Polk to run amok. He had five catches for 122 yards and a TD against Texas.
Michigan TE Colston Loveland Over-35.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM).
Tight ends have an edge against the Huskies, who offer an undersized defense that gives up yards in chunks to opposing TEs. Expect McCarthy to find Loveland early and often and expect to cash a ticket with a TE who surpassed this total in five of his last eight games.
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