The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings meet on Monday Night Football for a divisional matchup. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in the final minutes of their respective games.
Game Information
Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 ET, ESPN or fuboTV
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Point Spread: Minnesota -3 (+105), Chicago -3 (-125)
Total: 44, Over -110, Under -110
Moneyline: Chicago +130, Minnesota -155
Minnesota opened as a -3.5 favorite and that line has dropped to -3 at most sportsbooks. The total has remained at its opening line of 44.
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Will Bears Collapse Carry Over?
The Bears are coming off an epic collapse against the Lions last weekend. Chicago played well through the first three quarters before giving up a 12-point lead with 4:15 left in the game. Detroit scored 17 unanswered points in just 2:30 to win 31-26 and move to 8-2 on the season.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields was under center in that game after missing the previous five weeks with a thumb injury. He threw for 169 yards and one touchdown with zero interceptions. He also ran for a team-leading 104 yards on 18 carries. A number of those carries were designed runs. Clearly, Chicago had success with that approach against Detroit. I don’t see them having that same success against the Vikings and its top-10 run defense that’s allowing opponents just 94 yards on the ground. Minnesota is also allowing opposing QBs the 10th-fewest rushing attempts on the season and the 12th-fewest rushing yards. If Fields is forced to stay in the pocket for the majority of this game, the Bears could struggle to move the ball downfield.
Chicago also continues to shoot itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties, finishing with one fumble lost and six penalties for 69 yards last weekend. It did, however, force Jared Goff into three interceptions, which is something it’ll have to do to Josh Dobbs on Monday night if it wants to stay in this game.
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Dobbs No Kirk Cousins
One thing the Bears do have going for themselves is their run defense. It ranks fourth in the NFL and should be able to slow down an aspect of Minnesota’s game that it’s had to utilize quite a bit over the last few weeks without QB Kirk Cousins.
Josh Dobbs isn’t the same caliber passing quarterback as Cousins. So without Cousins, Minnesota has had to rely more heavily on its run game, which could be a problem against Chicago. On the season, the Vikings rank 28th on the ground, averaging just 93.8 yards per game. However, over the last three games, it has moved to fifth in the league with 148.7 per game.
That’s not to say Dobbs can’t move the ball through the air. He’s thrown for more than 220 yards in his first two full games with Minnesota and went 20-for-30 with 158 yards when he took over midway through the first half against the Falcons. The Vikings also have plenty of weapons on the outside with Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson, even if Justin Jefferson (hamstring) doesn’t return.
Minnesota’s defense has done a great job lately of forcing opponents to have to settle for field goals. Last weekend, the Vikings forced Denver into five field goals before giving up a touchdown in the final minute of the game. In the two games before that, the Falcons and Saints combined for five field goals and just three touchdowns. If Minnesota can keep the Bears out of the end zone and force them to settle for three, it should put itself in a great position to cover the spread.
Best Bet for Bears at Vikings
The Vikings have owned the Bears recently, winning five straight meetings and six of the last seven. Minnesota has also swept Chicago in each of the last two seasons. Not to mention, Chicago has lost 12 straight games against division opponents, and Matt Eberflus is 0-9 in the division while coaching Chicago.
The Bears have the more talented quarterback, which goes a long way, but Minnesota’s coaching staff is far and away better than Chicago. I don’t have faith in Eberflus to put Chicago in a position to win against a rival on the road. Take Minnesota to get a bounce-back to win and cover.
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