Both the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears are coming off of draining Week 4 losses. The Commanders played a really physical game against the Philadelphia Eagles that ended with an overtime loss, while the Bears blew a 21-point second-half lead against the Denver Broncos to lose their 14th straight game.
Despite losing its last two games, Washington appears to be a competent football team with a lot of positives on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Chicago is incompetent. The Bears organization is an absolute dumpster fire right now and that’s been made clear by the results each week.
The Commanders opened as slight favorites before the line moved up to Washington -6.5 at BetMGM. Some money has come in on the Bears, moving this line back down to -6. The total has ticked up a couple of points, opening at 42.5 and moving to 44.5.
This Thursday Night Football match up looks a little one-sided. Take a look at our staff’s best bets for the game. Game time is 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX or fuboTV.
Bears at Commanders Best Bets
Kate Constable: Commanders -6
Money has come in on the Bears, moving this line from Washington -6.5 to -6, but I’m not buying it. I’ll gladly take the Commanders to cover a smaller number, as I don’t agree with the Bears backers out there. There is too much turmoil in Chicago’s organization for it to get a road win on a short week. Washington’s defense should have its way with the Bears offensive line, and Chicago’s defense isn’t anything to fear and could be without two of its best defensive backs, giving Howell a much easier path downfield.
Fields has three wins in 19 starts, while Howell also has three wins but in just five career games. I’ll back the more complete team with the better defense and a slightly more competent coach.
Take a look at our staff’s best bets for the game.
Brad Pinkerton: Over 44.5
I don’t feel strongly one way or another about this total, to be honest, but what caught my eye here is that the BetQL model is projecting 48 points in this one, giving the Over of 44.5 value.
Matt Horner: Bears +6
I’ll be the one to do it since no one else wants to. I don’t blame them, Chicago is a dumpster fire and they have the worst head coach in football. However, it appears as though he could be coaching for his job on Thursday, which provides extra incentive to not be an idiot. Ron Rivera on the other side isn’t much better, and his decision not to go for two last week on the final play of the game was malpractice. Commanders QB Sam Howell takes a ton of sacks and holds onto the ball for far too long, much like Justin Fields. Getting +6 is important, and it’s available at only a few books right now. I’m just not sure that Washington is really that much better than the Bears to be having to win by almost a touchdown.
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Bears at Commanders Player Props
Dan Karpuc: Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD
Brian Robinson carried the ball 14 times for 45 yards and a TD and caught two more passes for six yards in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Eagles last week. He now has three rushing scores in his last three games.
This Bears defense just got crushed by Denver running backs Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine, allowing them to accumulate 84 rushing yards on 13 carries and 64 receiving yards on eight receptions with a touchdown. The week before, Chicago allowed Chiefs running backs to score four touchdowns and before that, Buccaneers running backs had a touchdown and Green Bay’s running backs had two. Robinson was on the field for 55% of snaps last week compared to Antonio Gibson’s 38%, so he still has a grasp on the RB1 role, adding to his intrigue this week.
Matt Horner: Bears QB Justin Fields Over 189.5 Passing Yards
Despite how pathetic Chicago has been this season, and how much scrutiny Fields has been under, he’s gone over this number in three of four contests. His 30.8 passing attempts per game are easily the highest of his career, and one has to wonder if the Bears are purposely making him pass more to see if he is the guy of the future. Washington is ranked just 23rd in passing DVOA, but top 10 against the run, so they are weaker in the secondary than anywhere else. With the Bears likely to be trailing at some point due to their horrific defense and the worst coach in the NFL at the helm, the game script will continue to help Fields get to at least 190 yards passing.
Lucy Burdge: Commanders QB Sam Howell Over 239.5 Passing Yards
Howell has hit this over twice this season, with 299 in Week 2 and 290 last week against the Eagles. And Patrick Mahomes threw for 272 yards against the Bears two weeks ago to hit this over. I see the Commanders getting a big win behind Howell with him throwing for enough yards to hit this over.
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