Three of the most intriguing games of the week, featuring a veritable plethora of offensive and defensive styles and a front-row Heisman contender, headline our Week 3 college football selections.
You couldn’t find two more offensively diverse teams than the Washington Huskies and the Air Force Falcons. This proves that—just as there are numerous ways to win football games—there are numerous ways to find value.
Even if one of those teams provides that value to its opponents.
And as readers here have noticed, we’re big fans of wagering on Air Force. Even if we’re not big fans of watching its Pleistocene Era-offense.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 3-3.
Going Airborne on the Ground
This line opened with Air Force favored by 7 and it’s taken off like an F-16 since. It’s currently Air Force plus-10, so run—do not walk—and climb aboard with the Falcons now. The Utah State Aggies haven’t a clue on how to stop Air Force’s triple-option offense; they surrendered 27 points last year and 45 in 2021, when the Falcons gained nearly seven yards a carry. In the past four meetings between these two, which they split, Air Force averaged 370 yards a game on the ground.
Now, let’s take a look at what remains of that Utah State Utes defense that couldn’t stop the Falcons—and what remains is only four starters that haven’t faced an offense of any consequence. That defense gets an Air Force team that returns six offensive linemen with starting experience and an underrated defense featuring four out of five returners in its secondary and most of its front-seven back. This doesn’t bode well for Utah State QB Cooper Legas, tasked with keeping the ball away from Air Force’s minigun offense, which held the ball for 61% of the time against Sam Houston last week. Legas completed 71.9% of his passes for 338 yards and three TDs against the Iowa Hawkeyes and an overmatched Idaho State Vandals. Air Force may not remind anyone of the Red Baron’s Flying Circus, but the Falcons are equally as deadly here.
Prediction: Air Force -10 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Friday, 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network or fuboTV
What’s Going on in Spartyland?
With Washington’s migration to the conference next year, welcome to the future of the Big 10. And welcome to the wildest card of the week, because what you’re going to see with the Michigan State Spartans here is anyone’s guess. The latest scandal in Spartyland, not to be confused with disgraced and convicted sexual predator Dr. Larry Nassar, involves head football coach Mel Tucker, who was suspended indefinitely because of sexual harassment charges.
This brings former coach Mark Dantonio back into the picture, who comes to the rescue as an assistant. What he’s rescuing is a 2-0 Spartans team coming off blowout victories over Richmond Spiders and Central Michigan Chippewas. It should surprise no one that Michigan State covered in both of those games—just as it should surprise no one that Washington and its aerial assault-on-steroids won’t be confused with either of those two minnows. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., who went all 300 on the Spartans for 397 yards and four TDs in last year’s victory, is currently the third choice on the Heisman Trophy odds board at +850.
This makes perfect sense, when you consider Penix is completing 73% of his passes for 859 yards and eight TDs. In case you’re wondering, here’s the Red Baron’s Flying Circus. The Spartans are allowing only 206 yards a game defensively, so the question remains: do they have enough in the emotional tank at home to absorb what Penix and Co. bring? We’ll say they have enough for a back-door cover, because 16.5 points is a big matzah ball to bite off—even with a Heisman contender doing the biting.
Prediction: Michigan State +16.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday 5 p.m. ET, Peacock Sports or fuboTV
Bringing These Two Out of the Shadows
We’ll forgive you if you haven’t noticed yet that the Kansas State Wildcats may be one of the most underrated teams in the country, one allowing only an average of 38 yards a game on the ground and one that has scored at least 40 points in four consecutive regular-season games.
If you have noticed the Wildcats’ feral nature, you’ve probably noticed that the last two of those victories came against FCS opponents Southeast Missouri State Redhawks and Troy Trojans. Point given, but with dual-threat QB Will Howard and that stingy defense, Kansas State is one of the few legitimate Big 12 threats to the acknowledged conference power—the Texas Longhorns.
Awaiting this is a Missouri Tigers’ team returning 15 starters on both ends of the ball, including eight on a defense that allowed only 25.2 points a game last year. You probably didn’t notice that defense allowed only 29 points through two games. And if you did, perhaps you noticed those victories came against Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and South Dakota Jackrabbits , where the Tigers didn’t cover in either victory, barely holding off Middle Tennessee State, 23-19, as three-TD favorites. What we’ve noticed is that’s too many questions the Tigers haven’t answered yet as to how good they really are. Throw in the fact Kansas State is 4-0 SU as an away favorite since 2020 and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and we have all the answers we need here.
Prediction: Kansas State -5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network or fuboTV
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