Finally, our Saturday and Sunday mornings are almost back to normal. The 2023-24 Premier League season opens Saturday, bringing the welcome experience of weekend mornings in front of the television with a coffee, bagel and the world’s most popular and watched league keeping us company.
Of course, we want some wagers riding shotgun. And there are plenty of ways to wager on the Premier League. Everything from who will win the Golden Boot as top scorer to who will finish top-two, to Over/Under point totals.
We look at some prop bets that offer value—along with keeping your interest when your team falls short to Manchester City in the title chase yet again.
Things Aren’t So Bright for Brighton
Thursdays in Turkey. Or Thursdays in Transylvania. No, this isn’t the newest James Patterson novel. It’s the storyline that likely awaits Brighton this season, courtesy of its outkicking-its-coverage sixth-place finish in last year’s Premier League chase. Finishing with a team-record 62 points earned the Seagulls a berth in the Europa League.
This means at least six Thursday night games in such garden spots as Turkey, Romania, Finland or Insert Name of Far-Flung Central and Eastern European Locale Here. Oh, and we should mention this is followed by a Sunday Premier League game. If you’re Manchester City and your B-team is better than 80% of the teams in Europe, this isn’t a big deal.
If you’re Brighton and your B-team would be Premier League relegation bait, European football is a poisoned chalice. The Seagulls simply don’t have the depth for a prolonged European run. If for some reason they pull one off, something will have to give. That something is Premier League form. Add in the fact that after last season’s vault up the table, Brighton will surprise exactly nobody and a regression to the mean makes this a great bet.
Prediction: Brighton Under 56.5 points (-105 at BetRivers)
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No Jubilee With These Cherries
Speaking of regressing to the mean, say “hello” to Bournemouth. Last season, the Cherries were on everyone’s tongues as prime relegation candidates. And they were tripping miserably on that path until manager Scott Parker was sacked in the wake of a 9-0 hammering by Liverpool. Enter Gary O’Neil, who guided Bournemouth to a stellar run-in: five victories in its last seven games, a skein that included wins over fellow relegation contenders Leicester City, Southampton, and Leeds United—all of which are now in the Championship.
O’Neil was rewarded for his stewardship keeping the Cherries up by being fired on June 19. He was replaced by Andoni Iraola, last seen skippering Rayo Vallecano in the Spanish Second Division. We don’t presume to know what Iraola brings to the table. We do presume to know that Bournemouth massively overachieved just to get 39 points last season. Also we presume to know the Cherries won’t look that sweet—or hit that total—this season.
Prediction: Bournemouth Under-38.5 points (-129 at Caesars)
Three is More Than Company at Luton Town
To get to Kenilworth Road, Luton Town’s pitch that defines the word “cozy,” you have to go through an apartment complex, apologize to the English versions of Fred and Ethel Mertz and Stanley and Helen Roper for the intrusion. You then shoehorn yourself into a stadium that seats barely 10,000—less than the average Texas high school football stadium. This is the 3D living-color definition of “home-field advantage. It’s a big reason why Luton Town rose from the non-league Conference Premier a decade ago to the pinnacle of English soccer for the first time since the 1991-92 season. Throw in standout manager Rob Edwards, who guided the Hatters to Premier League madness in his first season at the helm, and it’s conceivable Luton can duplicate what Nottingham Forest did last year—score 30 of its 38 points at home and stay up. Don’t expect Luton to stay up; the Hatters are -305 to go right back down. But do expect the Hatters to surprise more than a few teams and crack the 30-point mark. Oh, if you think they can stay up, you’ll get +225 for your confidence.
Prediction: Luton Town Over 29.5 points (-129 at BetRivers)
This Pope Saves
Often buried in the prop-bet menu is the Golden Glove, emblematic of the goalkeeper who racks up the most clean sheets. That’s because the Golden Boot—going to the top goal scorer—is a sexier award. With Manchester City’s Erling Haaland at around -139 to defend his title, those odds are anything but sexy. Instead, grab a glove with Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope, who finished tied for second with 14 clean sheets last year. That was three more than Man City’s Ederson, who is even. Pope was tied with Liverpool’s Alisson (9-4) and Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsdale, while playing for a Newcastle team that allowed a league-co-best 33 goals. Liverpool’s questionable defense remains such. Ramsdale—while carrying the same 12-1 odds as Pope—was hot-and-cold last year behind a team that allowed 10 more goals than Newcastle. Make a wagering pilgrimage to see this Pope grab his first Golden Glove.
Prediction: Nick Pope winning the Golden Glove (12-1 at BetMGM)
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