The odds for NFL Division Winners are now available at most sportsbooks. The prices and favorites are similar right now. This will change as we approach training camp and the regular season.
The sportsbook operators will adjust the odds based on how the public responds to the number. If a team is not getting much action the manager will move the number to attract handle or action. If a team is getting the lion’s share of the action the manager will increase the amount of what you must wager to mitigate the risk for the book.
Each division will have a clear favorite based on the strength of the team and public perception. Before I examine each division, I ask that you be advised that one key injury to the starting quarterback will change the entire complexion of the season. I would look at two selections in different divisions to hedge against that primmest. Keep in mind that defense wins championships so go with a team that is stout on that side of the ball.
This week let’s look at the four divisions in the AFC.
AFC East: Bills Favorites, Jets, Dolphins Close Behind
The Buffalo Bills have won the division for the last three years. The Miami Dolphins challenged the Bills last year before the head and concussion injuries befell quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Odds to Win AFC East
Buffalo Bills +120
New York Jets +250
Miami Dolphins +300
New England Patriots +900
Odds courtesy of Unibet
Now add Aaron Rodgers as the starting QB of the New York Jets and you have a competitive division. The New England Patriots don’t have enough offense to be a viable threat. The team in this division that could win with defense is the Jets. The team with the best combination of coaching and talent is the Bills. Buffalo is the selection to win the division with the Jets a close second.
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Bengals Looking for Third AFC North Crown
The Cincinnati Bengals have won the division for the last two years and played in the AFC Championship game in both years. Quarterback Joe Burrow is in line for an extension and playing for a contract.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson just received a new contract after a season that was riddled with injuries. The Cleveland Browns will have DeShaun Watson under center and are preparing to start after two seasons of limited activity due to off field digressions.
Odds to Win AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals +125
Baltimore Ravens +275
Cleveland Browns +380
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the team that will be competitive but are one year away from challenging for the division title.
This is a strong division, but the Bengals are the best team. Ravens Coach John Harbaugh is no longer the gold standard of the division due to several questionable end-game decisions. The Bengals get the edge with coaching and talent and are the selection to win the division.
Jacksonville Rules Weak AFC South
The Jacksonville Jaguars are clearly the prohibitive team in this division. Compare their price to win the crown to the teams in the AFC East and North.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division. The Jags also have the best defense in the division.
It looks like the Jaguars will make a deeper run in the playoffs this season and will be the dominant team in the AFC South.
Odds to Win AFC South
Jackson Jaguars -165
Tennessee Titans +375
Indianapolis Colts +550
Houston Texans +800
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Tennessee Titans are the only competitor with a realistic chance to dethrone the Jags, who won the division last year. The Titans were the top team in this division the two seasons prior. The Titans rely heavily on running back Derrick Henry and then he broke his ankle last year. There aren’t enough weapons around him.
The Jags have the best coach and talent combination. The selection is the Jags. I would get on them early because this price will go up.
Chiefs Continue AFC West Dominance
The Kansas City Chiefs have won the division for the last four years. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is durable and so far has not had any significant injury. The defense is solid and six rookies should make a bigger impact than they did last year.
The addition of Head Coach Sean Payton improved the Denver Broncos. Denver added two quality starters to their offensive line to protect QB Russell Wilson.
Odds to Win AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs -182
Los Angeles Chargers +330
Denver Broncos +600
Las Vegas Raiders +1400
Odds courtesy of BetRivers
The Los Angeles Chargers have QB Justin Herbert and lost to the Chiefs by three points twice in 2022.
The Las Vegas Raiders have moved on from QB Derrick Carr, but the jury is out on Jimmy Garoppolo as an upgrade for the position.
The best combination of talent and coaching is the Chiefs. The Chargers and Broncos take strides forward, but the Chiefs still run the division. The Chiefs are the selection.
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