This is the trophy Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola coveted above all others. It was no secret to anyone who knew what motivated the Spanish soccer maestro. Oh, he’s lifted the European Champion Clubs’ Cup twice before, both times with his boyhood club, Barcelona. But this time the motivation came from the otherwise empty space in a rather packed City trophy case.
Since Guardiola joined City in 2016, he’s won 70% of his games and claimed five Premier League titles, four League Cups and two FA Cups. But the Champions League has always eluded him, the great silver whale teasing the greatest manager in the game.
Two years ago, Guardiola overcame three consecutive quarterfinal exits, bringing City to its first Champions League final in club history, only to watch an underdog Chelsea team steal a 1-0 victory.
Now, all the pieces are in place for City to rectify that hardware oversight. All that stands in the way is an Inter Milan team that isn’t as good as the Chelsea team that smashed-and-grabbed Big Cup two years ago.
Should City finally harpoon the big silver whale, it will be only the second English team to pull of the “treble.” The treble is winning a league title, domestic cup and European Cup in the same season. And making this sweeter for the blue half of Manchester is the only other English team to bank a treble is blood rivals Manchester United. The Reds did it in 1999.
Guardiola does have a treble on his CV, when he lifted all three trophies in the 2008-09 season at Barcelona. But to do it twice—and to do it with a club that never carried off the trophy is about the only thing missing on his sterling resume.
Here at Three Bets, we’re bullish on Guardiola pulling off the treble and giving the blue half of Manchester equal bragging rights on one of the most elusive feats in European football. We’re proposing three different bets in order of likelihood.
Bet $1 at Bet365 and get $200 in free bets! Just sign up and make a deposit of $10 or more, claim the offer, place a $1 bet and the $200 in free bets will be added to your account.
Manchester City Gets Clean Exclamation Point
The tactics in this game are as predictable as the second ring on a phone. City is a possession-based team; it’s in Guardiola’s managerial DNA. City will control the ball between 60-67% of the time.
And Inter will be fine with that. After all, the Italian powers reached the Champions League final averaging only 40% possession. They played six knockout games and outside of Benfica’s three goals in the second leg of their quarterfinal, did not pull a ball out of their own net. This is not terra incognita for either side.
Inter’s tactics are simple: absorb City’s relentless pressure, clog the middle to deny high-quality scoring opportunities, then hope to spring a counterattack. But City has plenty of weapons to counter that (more on that momentarily). Plus, once it does get a goal, City has a remarkable ability to deny teams offensive oxygen. Half of its six knockout-stage games came with clean sheets.
That—along with the fact City is anywhere from a -450 to -600 favorite to win outright—is why we like a different, more value-laden offering: betting on a clean sheet. That’s called a win to Nil wager and this game lines up nicely for that.
Prediction: Manchester City to win to Nil (+135 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV
New customers at BetMGM start with a first-bet offer, up to $1000. Simply sign up, make a deposit and place your first wager. If the bet loses, you’ll receive the amount of your wager back in Bonus bets.
Paging Erling Haaland
To give you an idea what kind of transcendent season Manchester City striker Erling Haaland had, we drop the name of Tottenham’s Harry Kane. The Spurs’ sniper scored 30 goals this year—and still finished six behind Haaland for the Premier League’s Golden Boot.
Need more proof that Haaland is the best targetman on the planet? His 36 goals were more than two Premier League teams: Everton (34) and Wolves (31). They equaled the season total of relegated Southampton. And, naturally, they set a Premier League record for most goals in a 38-game season.
Haaland enjoyed stints this year where he was simply unplayable. He had a five-goal game against RB Leipzig and ran away with the Champions League scoring title, tallying 12 goals.
There’s little if any value in betting on him to score an anytime goal. That’s why we’re going out on a limb by saying the Norwegian sniper will put his 6-foot-4 frame to productive work early.
Prediction: Haaland to score the game’s first goal (+210 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV
Calling Our Shot
Because this is Guardiola’s best opportunity to end City’s Champions League drought, expect the master tactician to do what it takes to score early. Scoring often is desirable, but not necessary, given City’s defensive abilities.
Once City (more specifically, Haaland) scores, Inter will be forced to come out of its counterattacking shell and play. This plays exactly into City’s hands and right into Guardiola’s 3D chess game. Expect another City goal to come from that. If you’re feeling particularly audacious, and think City will open up a chasing-the-game Inter again late, add on another one.
Prediction: Manchester City wins 2-0 (+600) or 3-0 (+850) at BetRivers
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV
Make your first-time deposit with BetRivers in Michigan and New Jersey and place your first sports wager. If your first wager loses, receive a Free Bet, equal to your stake, up to a maximum of $500. Free Bet will be awarded within 24 Hours of your qualifying wager settling as a loss.
